With Hillary Clinton now to win the US election, the question for many has become not whether Donald Trump will lose, but how devastating the loss will be.
With some polls showing Clinton could win by more than 10 points, hundreds of Republican senators, congressional representatives and state officials could be facing an electoral wipeout.
Instead of riding to victory on their nominee’s coattails, they risk being swept out of office by them.
Republicans are to lose control of the US Senate and may even lose control of Congress, despite district boundaries that heavily favor Republican incumbents.
But that’s not all – literally thousands of politicians and public officials will be running for positions in local, state and federal races across the country.
That includes 34 senate races, 435 house races, 12 gubernatorial races and thousands of candidates for state representatives and public officials.
In a system of voluntary voting, those down-ballot candidates are reliant on the headline candidates to get people to the polls on election day.
Recommended:
Fact checked: The final Clinton Trump debate
Once voters receive their ballot paper, they often face a bewildering array of candidates.
In Utah, for example, voters will also be electing a US Senator, Congressional Representative, State Governor, Lieutenant Governor, Attorney General, State Treasurer, State Auditor, State Senators and State Representatives.
Depending where they are, they might also have local council, county or school board elections.
Given the sheer number of candidates, those at the bottom of the ticket often struggle for resources and media oxygen at the best of times.
This year, many Republicans will be worried that those put off by Donald Trump’s divisive campaign will either vote Democrat or not show up to the polls at all.
Compounding the problem is Donald Trump’s open feud with his own party, which many of his supporters view as part of the establishment he rails against.
Voters often face an array of candidates for federal, statewide, county and local offices, as well as ballot measures and elections for public officials. Source: Board of Elections
That dynamic means there’s the potential for a double whammy – moderate Republicans and Independents stay away from the voting booths (or vote Democrat), while motivated Trump supporters intentionally spurn the other candidates.
Every local candidate’s nightmare is that their voters will tick the box for either Trump or Clinton, and then leave the booth without going down the list.
The potential for a wipeout has seen Republicans dropping millions of dollars directly into local races to defend congressional seats and senate seats that were once thought of as uncontestable.
For the Republican establishment, Trump’s Access Hollywood tapes and “grab them by the pussy” comments were a turning-point.
Shortly after the scandal broke, Republican Speaker Paul Ryan told his members that he would be focusing solely on their races, withdrawing from planned Trump events and making no further efforts to defend the nominee.
(It should be noted, however, that internal tussles for resources between congressional campaigns and presidential campaigns are nothing new – and it happens on both sides).
Republicans in Congress will be hoping that draw a distinction between local representatives and the party's presidential nominee.
While Donald Trump’s fate appears sealed – barring any major changes in the dying days of the campaign – the fight for Congress and other down-ballot races will continue right up until the polls close on election night, Tuesday November 8.
House Speaker Paul Ryan has said he will no longer defend his party's nominee. Source: Getty Images
Thousands of volunteers for local party organisations will be making phone calls and walking door-to-door to make sure every possible supporter gets out to the polls.
With unprecedented voter dissatisfaction levels, a widening gap in opinion polls, and a range of complex local dynamics across the country – it’s anyone’s guess how November 8 will pan out for those futher down the ballot.
