The federal government will take some heart from the Coalition's win in the NSW election on Saturday, but there are also alarm bells - particularly for the Nationals.
For both the winners and the losers there are key lessons about what's on the minds of voters and campaign tactics to be learnt ahead of the May federal election.
The Liberal Party
The win is a much needed confidence boost for the federal Liberal Party as it gears up for an election
Party strategists will no doubt have observed the state Liberals' strategy to make it a battle of leadership, targeting Labor Leader Michael Daley, who only took over the helm four months ago.
"It’s clear that leadership and character of leadership was an issue that certainly the Coalition focused on," Assistant Vice-Chancellor at Western Sydney University Dr Andy Marks told SBS News on Monday.
NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian celebrates her win with Prime Minister Scott Morrison. Source: AAP
But Dr Marks points out that the NSW Coalition's narrow victory margin, despite an $80 billion infrastructure budget and a relatively strong economy will not be reassuring for the federal party.
The biggest problem for the Liberals is the poor performance of its Coalition partners, the Nationals.
"It’s very likely indeed that the government will look at what happened in New South Wales and try to direct as much attention to the regions policy and funding wise," Dr Marks said.
A massive regional funding package is reportedly being finalised, but at this late stage, it may be too little, too late.
The Nationals
Suffering double digit swings against them in central NSW seats, The Nationals are in damage control.
“They were strong in some coastal areas but abysmal in the central west so that shows you voters quite astutely are voting on regional issues given what’s been going on in rural Australia,” Dr Marks said.
Former federal leader Barnaby Joyce told Channel 7 on election night the result was a warning to the Coalition not to ignore regional voters.
NSW Nationals Leader and Deputy Premier John Barilaro, pictured with Gladys Berejiklian, says he's disappointed with Nationals loss. Source: AAP
"You better wake up and understand that the political scope of Australia is vastly different from what we've been reporting on, and if you don't recognise it, votes move," Mr Joyce said.
Fury about government policies, particularly on water management in drought times, combined with internal disputes, saw them bleed votes to the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party.
"The bigger problem for the Nationals is that the perception from voters was that the Nationals has lost with those issues due to the influence of internal matters."
Labor Party
Much of the blame for Labor's less than impressive result on Saturday is being heaped on NSW Labor Leader Michael Daley's poor performance.
And that will suit his federal colleagues.
In a horror final week of the campaign, Mr Daley struggled to recall key policy details during a debate against the Premier and a video emerged where he said "Asians with PhDs" were taking "our kids''" jobs.
While Bill Shorten has been opposition leader for long enough to avoid making similar mistakes, it's a timely reminder of how things can quickly derail on the campaign trail.
NSW Labor leader Michael Daley had a horror week in the final week of the campaign. Source: AAP
“Shorten will have rehearsed those numbers around his costings and he would know them backwards so I don’t think he’s going to fall into that trap," Dr Marks said.
Dr Marks said the negative reaction to Mr Daley's comments about Asian migration was a reminder to all politicians that Australians demand more respect.
"The message from the state election is that politicians like anyone else need to speak respectfully and decently about all people. Daley’s comments were abhorrent and they were picked up in in certain electorates."
A Labor supporter at the end of a disappointing night for the party in NSW. Source: AAP
Minor parties and independents
The NSW result reinforces what many political insiders and observers have known - voters are deserting major parties for minor parties and independents.
Far-right minor parties Shooters, Fishers and Farmers and One Nation were big winners in NSW.
The Shooters, Fishers and Farmers will pick up three seats off The Nationals, and they'll be hoping to carry that momentum into the federal election.
Shooters, Fishers and Farmers party leader Robert Borsak campaigned on water supply issues. Source: AAP
One Nation candidate Mark Latham claimed an upper house seat, while the party increased its primary vote in several lower house seats.
"They overtook the Greens in probably four or five urban seats as the third force in politics so certainly minors and independents will feature on the federal seats," Dr Marks said.
Independents hoping to keep or win a seat in federal government are also taking heart from the result on the weekend, with Federal Wentworth independent MP Kerryn Phelps saying it reinforces that climate change is an election issue for her constituents.
