Key Points
- On 24 February 2022, Russia launched its 'special military operation' in Ukraine.
- The conflict has become one of the biggest global issues over the past year, and is set to continue into 2023.
- Experts say impacts will continue to ripple across the globe, contributing to the rising cost of living.
In February 2022, Russia's 'special operation' in Ukraine started making headlines, and as it developed into a , it quickly became one of the biggest news stories of the year.
Now, almost a year later, the conflict is ongoing, with flow-on effects rippling around the world.
As 2022 comes to a close, experts are warning the war is likely to continue for months.
So what can we expect to see in 2023, and how will it impact Australia?
What is the situation in Ukraine now?
Throughout the year, both sides have made advances and suffered losses.
Dr Sonia Mycak, research fellow in the Centre for European Studies at the Australian National University, told SBS News she believes Ukraine is currently in a stronger position.
"Overall, Ukraine is in a stronger position ... the problem is the fighting can continue, even if [Russian president Vladimir Putin] has lost the war," she said.
"I think we can come to the end of the year saying even though Russia did not achieve its aims of wanting to take over Kyiv, to depose [Ukrainian President Volodymyr] Zelenskyy, to take control of Ukraine, nonetheless it continues to terrorise and attack Ukraine," she said.
Throughout the Christmas period, Ukraine's military said dozens of towns had been shelled and civilian infrastructure attacked.
Mr Zelenskyy said nine million people remain without power due to the conflict.
In an interview aired on 25 December, Mr Putin said , but Kyiv and its Western backers had refused to engage in talks.
However, White House National Security spokesman John Kirby has said Mr Putin has "shown absolutely zero indication that he's willing to negotiate".
What could happen in 2023?
During a visit to the United States in December, would mark a "turning point" in the fight against Russia.
"Against all odds and doom-and-gloom scenarios," Mr Zelenskyy said in a speech that drew standing ovations, "Ukraine is alive and kicking."
"Your money is not charity. It's an investment in the global security and democracy that we handle in the most responsible way," Mr Zelenskyy said.
In the new year, Dr Mycak said continued support from allies, including the US and European partners will remain important to Ukraine.
"Volodymyr Zelenskyy's visit to the US and his address in Congress on the 22nd of December implies that will be the case," she said.
"I think that will come in three ways, in weapons and ammunition, air defence, and energy infrastructure."
Dr Mycak said she expects Ukraine will also focus on international legal initiatives and pursuing ramifications for Russia.
"I think that a priority for Ukraine is going to be designating Russia as a terrorist state because that will have all kinds of consequences for Russia," she said.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy addressed a joint meeting of US Congress on Capitol Hill on 22 December. Source: AP / Carolyn Kaster
"Another thing that I think has been under-reported is Mr Zelenskyy's 10-point peace plan, the 10 steps the Ukrainian government is suggesting need to happen in order for this war to end. I think that peace plan is going to be crucial in 2023."
Associate Professor Matthew Sussex, Fellow at ANU's Strategic and Defence Studies Centre, believes the conflict is likely to continue well into the new year.
"As we go into 2023, the conflict is still relatively delicately poised, you would probably say Ukraine does have the upper hand, but whether they will be able to capitalise on that is anyone's guess," he said.
"I would say the conflict is likely to go on for another six months, if not a year."
How has the conflict impacted Australia?
One of the major ways the conflict has been felt in other countries, including Australia, is the impact on the cost of living and inflation, particularly due to food and energy markets.
Dr Mycak says this is likely to continue for the duration of the war.
"Inflation is predicted to peak at 8 per cent next year, because of floods and Russia's invasion of Ukraine," she said.
A damaged apartment building in the Ukrainian city of Bakhmut. Source: Getty / SOPA Images/LightRocket
Throughout the conflict, Australia has , which Mr Sussex says has resulted in our relationship with Russia deteriorating.
Over the past year, Russia has imposed on Australian individuals and companies, and Australia has done the same to Russia.
On 28 December, Russia announced it would ban oil sales to countries that abide by a price cap imposed by the West, including Australia.
Under the price cap, the countries would pay no more than US$60 ($89) per barrel, but as of 1 February, Russia will no longer sell to participating countries at all.
When it comes to imports and exports out of Ukraine, Mr Sussex says Australia will not be directly affected, but the wider economic impacts will continue to be felt around the world.
"I think one of the big fears is if the Ukrainian economy does collapse and it's unable to ship grain around the world, that has knock-on effects to the global economy, and that will be felt everywhere in Australia," he said.
"To say this conflict is a long way away from us would not be right, we are in a globalised economy, and there are global implications when there is war and conflict."
