The head of Britain's GCHQ spy service says that new intelligence showed some Russian soldiers in Ukraine had refused to carry out orders, sabotaged their own equipment and accidentally shot down one of their own aircraft.
It comes as a United States official said President Vladimir Putin has been misled by military advisers reluctant to reveal the scale of losses suffered in .
Government Communications Headquarters (GCHQ) chief Jeremy Fleming said President Vladimir Putin had "massively misjudged" the capabilities of Russia's once-mighty armed forces while underestimating both the resistance of the Ukrainian people and the resolve of the West, which has punished Moscow with largely coordinated sanctions.
"Putin has massively misjudged the situation," Mr Fleming said in a speech at the Australian National University in Canberra, according to a transcript of his remarks.
"We believe Putin’s advisers are afraid to tell him the truth."
Citing new intelligence, Mr Fleming said there was evidence that Russian soldiers had low morale and were poorly equipped.
"We’ve seen Russian soldiers — short of weapons and morale — refusing to carry out orders, sabotaging their own equipment and even accidentally shooting down their own aircraft," Mr Fleming said.
News agency Reuters was unable to independently confirm GCHQ's analysis.
GCHQ, which gathers communications from around the world to identify and disrupt threats to Britain, has a close relationship with the US National Security Agency and with the eavesdropping agencies of Australia, Canada and New Zealand in a consortium called "Five Eyes".
Russia's defence ministry says its armed forces are professional and carrying out their duty in Ukraine with considerable success. It says the West has spread lies about the operation in an attempt to bring down Russia.
A US official, citing declassified US intelligence, said: "We have information that Putin felt misled by the Russian military.
"Putin is being misinformed by his advisers about how badly the Russian military is performing and how the Russian economy is being crippled by sanctions, because his senior advisers are too afraid to tell him the truth."
The official said Mr Putin had been unaware that conscripts were being deployed to fight in Ukraine, where Russia has suffered huge personnel and equipment losses.
There is "persistent tension between Putin and the MOD (Ministry of Defence), stemming from Putin's mistrust in MOD leadership," the official said.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, asked about the intelligence while travelling in Algeria, said that in "autocracies... you don't have people in those systems who speak truth to power."
Ukrainian soldiers patrol next to a destroyed Russian tank in the village of Lukianivka near Kyiv on 30 March, 2022. Source: Getty, AFP / Ronaldo Schemidt
Ukraine braces for new Russian offensive
It comes as Ukrainian forces are preparing for new Russian attacks in the east of the country as Moscow builds up its troops there after suffering setbacks near the capital Kyiv, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on Thursday.
Russia's invasion of its neighbour, now in its fifth week, has driven around a quarter of Ukrainians from their homes and brought Russian-Western tensions to their worst point since the Cold War.
Tough resistance by Ukrainian forces has prevented Russia from capturing any major city, including Kyiv, where a Russian armed column was held back for weeks. At peace talks this week in Istanbul, Russia said it would curtail operations near Kyiv and the northern city of Chernihiv to build trust.
But Ukraine and its Western allies, including the United States, dismissed Russia's pledge as a ploy to stem its losses and prepare for other attacks. Russia says its forces are regrouping to focus on "liberating" the breakaway eastern Donbas region.
In an early morning video address, Mr Zelenskyy referred to Russian troop movements away from Kyiv and Chernihiv and said that was not a withdrawal but rather "the consequence of our defenders' work."
Mr Zelenskyy added that Ukraine is seeing "a build-up of Russian forces for new strikes on the Donbas and we are preparing for that."
A soldier comforts an elderly woman evacuated from Irpin, on the outskirts of Kyiv, Ukraine, on Wednesday, 30 March, 2022. Source: AAP, AP / Rodrigo Abd
The leader of the Donetsk People's Republic, Denis Pushilin, said on Wednesday that offensive operations were intensifying.
"We are well aware that the longer it takes us to liberate our territory, those settlements that are now under control of Ukraine, the more victims and destruction there will be," he said.
Donetsk includes the besieged port city of Mariupol, which has seen some of the war's heaviest fighting and bombardment and where some 170,000 people are trapped with scarce food and water.
"We cook what we find among neighbours. A bit of cabbage, a bit more of potatoes, we've found tomato paste, some beetroot," said former steelworker Viktor from Mariupol. They cook using a rudimentary barbecue and sleep in a basement, which he termed their "peaceful oasis."
Russian forces have taken half of the strategic port city, an adviser to Mr Zelenskyy said on Wednesday.
Russia says it is carrying out a "special operation" to disarm and "denazify" its neighbour. Western countries say Moscow's invasion was entirely unprovoked.
The city market in Chenihiv, Ukraine, is seen damaged after shelling on 30 March, 2022. Source: AAP / AP
Peace talks
The fate of the southeastern Donbas region, which Russia demands Ukraine cede to the separatists, was a topic of discussion at peace talks held on Tuesday at an Istanbul palace. A senior Ukrainian negotiator said the talks will resume online on Friday.
Ukraine has sought a ceasefire without compromising on territory or sovereignty, though it has proposed adopting a neutral status in exchange for security guarantees. Russia opposes Ukraine joining , and has cited its potential membership as a reason for the invasion.
Western sanctions imposed on Russia as punishment for its invasion have largely isolated its economy from world trade but Moscow is still the biggest supplier of oil and gas to Europe.
A soldier walks past a shopping centre in Kyiv, Ukraine, that was destroyed by shelling in late March. Source: AAP, AP / Rodrigo Abd
Floating a potential compromise, Mr Putin told German Chancellor Olaf Scholz that payments could be made in euros and sent to Gazprombank, which would convert the money to roubles, a German government spokesperson said.
"Scholz did not agree to this procedure in the conversation, but asked for written information to better understand the procedure," the spokesperson said.
Gazprombank, one of the main channels for payments for Russian oil and gas, is not subject to EU sanctions.
But global restrictions on exports to Russia over its invasion have shut down a carmaker, halted work on tanks, and cut off a Russian computer maker's access to circuits used in communications equipment, a US official said.
"Necessity brought together this unprecedented collaboration on export controls and other measures that are having a meaningful impact on Putin's war," said Thea Kendler, an official with the US Commerce Department.
Russia says the West has effectively declared economic war on Russia and so it will now turn eastwards, away from Europe, to build a partnership with China.
Mr Fleming said there were risks to both Russia and China in being too closely aligned.
"Russia understands that long term, China will become increasingly strong militarily and economically," Mr Fleming said.
"Some of their interests conflict; Russia could be squeezed out of the equation," he said.
