New parliament tasked to keep up growth

Maintaining Australia's prosperity will be in the sights for the nation's next parliament, after the economy lost some momentum at the end of 2018.

The Reserve Bank of Australia building in Sydney.

The government after Saturday will face the challenge of continuing Australia's economic health. (AAP)

Amid trade tensions and uncertainty surrounding Brexit, the global economy has challenges in store for whomever is Australia's treasurer after the federal election.

But the economic issues that have dominated Labor's case for a change of government - sluggish wage growth and the rising cost of living - are unlikely to give the next parliament too much trouble.

Instead, politicians elected on Saturday will face the challenge of continuing Australia's 28-year stretch of uninterrupted growth, CommSec chief economist Craig James believes.

"Given the long expansion that we've had, being able to maintain the economy in good shape without going into a downturn clearly is a degree of a challenge," he told AAP.

"This is unheard of for an advanced economy like Australia, to go this period of time without a downturn."

History shows government policies are the difference between a nation keeping out of a recession or entering one, the economist notes.

"Provided the government of the day doesn't overreact to short-term changes in the economy, they're mindful of any changes that they want to make to the economy ... then we'll be fine."

Australia's economy lost a little pace at the end of 2018, with the impending election making some contribution to the trend.

The federal budget put growth expectations at 2.75 per cent for 2019/20, revised down from an earlier forecast of three per cent.

The Reserve Bank of Australia made the same adjustment to its growth forecast in its latest quarterly monetary statement, released last week.

How much cash households splash is a key source of uncertainty for growth going forward.

The economy grew by 2.3 per cent in the year to December, the Australian Bureau of Statistics found.

What Australians earn has been in focus this election, with Labor leader Bill Shorten calling the poll a "referendum on wages" amid slow growth that he has vowed to turn around through a range of measures.

That comes as the budget expects wages to rise by 2.75 per cent in the coming year, down from an earlier forecast of three per cent.

The central bank is tipping a "modest" increase in wages in the coming year, on the back of a gradual increase since 2016, as more people continue to finds jobs

But the proof is, of course, in the pudding, with ABS data released on Wednesday showing wages were up by 0.5 per cent in the March quarter, and 2.3 per cent over the year.

The same growth was recorded in the December quarter.

On the cost of living, the government is expecting 2.25 per cent inflation in 2019/20, while the central bank is expecting 2.75 per cent.

Mr James says both inflation and wage growth have been low across the globe as people are increasingly able to buy products whenever they want and wherever they are, putting downward pressure on prices.

But what matters is that wage growth has still been beating inflation.

House values have also been a prominent issue this election, with the coalition arguing Labor's proposed changes to housing tax breaks will lower home values.

The opposition says they will only have a modest effect and will help level the playing field for first home-buyers competing against investors.

Data from property analytics firm CoreLogic shows dwelling values across Australia have fallen 7.9 per cent since peaking in September 2017.

Both sides of politics have also spoken of the "global headwinds" facing the economy.

The two big issues at play at the ongoing trade tensions between the United States and China and Brexit, Mr James says.

CommSec is expecting the US and China will eventually resolve their differences.

Good news awaiting whichever major party wins the poll is that they're both expecting to deliver a surplus by mid-2020, with the coalition expecting one of $7.1 billion and Labor $7.4 billion.


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4 min read
Published 16 May 2019 12:06pm
Source: AAP


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