After two weeks of lockdown, Melbourne's COVID-19 second wave shows no sign of slowing.
On Wednesday, Victoria recorded its highest daily figure of 484 new cases – the 17th consecutive day of triple-digit increases.
While Premier Daniel Andrews said the state was "seeing some stability" in the weekly average, he conceded case numbers were not dropping at the rate he would have liked.
So does that mean Melbourne's lockdown hasn't worked?
A very different wave
Starting 9 July, metropolitan Melbourne and the Mitchell Shire entered an initial six-weeks of Stage 3 lockdown, meaning residents could only leave their house .
Professor John Mathews, an epidemiologist at the University of Melbourne, told SBS News that cases have continued to climb because the city's second wave is very different from its first.
"With the first wave, we knew that the cases were coming in on overseas airline arrivals or on cruise ships, so we were able to keep that under control with contact tracing more easily," he said.
"The situation now – there are many more cases of community transmission."
He said in this environment, contact tracing is much harder, meaning cases can easily explode.
A tram passenger wearing a mask in Melbourne. Source: AAP
"It's very predictable what's happened. It just needed a few cases that weren't prevented. They silently seeded in the suburbs in Melbourne and that has led to a very difficult situation to control."
Testing issues
Professor Mathews said the high level of community transmission has been compounded by missteps from the Victorian government around testing.
On Wednesday, analysis from the Victorian government .
And more than half did not isolate themselves in the time between undertaking a COVID-19 test and receiving the result.
Professor Mathews said although the government has a "heavy workload" it needs to address these persisting "communications difficulties" around testing.
COVID-19 testing in Broadmeadows. Source: AAP
"People are not hearing about test results as quickly as they hoped and they're not sure precisely what they should do."
He said this was all compounded by general "lockdown fatigue" from Victorians – creating a perfect storm for a growth in cases.
Time for a stricter lockdown?
Under the current lockdown, people can leave the house for a number of reasons including exercise, care duties, shopping for essentials and work that cannot be done from home.
As the definition of "essential work" remains broad and the decision is left up to individuals, many Melburnians are still going to their places of work.
In addition, Year 11 and 12 students went back to school on 13 July.
This has meant there continues to be significant movement of people around the city.
Raina MacIntyre, the head of the biosecurity program at the Kirby Institute at the University of NSW, gave SBS News a blunt assessment of Victoria's lockdown so far.
"Whatever they're doing – it hasn't worked ... Numbers should have been dramatically dropping," she said.
She said the case growth could be blamed on two things.
"Either people aren't complying with the requirements and there is too much social activity still going on, or there was a lot more transmission that wasn't detected earlier."
As cases have not dropped, Professor MacIntyre said more drastic measures were needed.
Statues in Melbourne this week. Source: AAP
"At this stage, they should really be looking at Stage 4 lockdown. It's quite urgent," she said.
There is currently no official information available as to what a Stage 4 lockdown would look like in Australia, .
"I think [the Victorian government] shouldn't wait for the weekend because reporting and testing numbers drop on the weekend so you could get lulled into a false sense of security ... The time for making a decision is now."
Government defends response
Despite the record number of new cases, Mr Andrews said there were no plans to introduce further restrictions.
"The key factor here that's driving the numbers and driving our challenge is people that are sick but not getting tested," he told reporters on Wednesday.
Victorian Chief Health Officer Brett Sutton said a move to a New Zealand-style "hard lockdown" won't necessarily address the issues the state faces.
Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews arrives at a press conference this week. Source: AAP
"I wouldn't make assumptions that harder, more constrained lockdown is necessarily the way to go. We have to be targeted in terms of seeing where the issues are and addressing them directly," he said.
Of the state's new cases on Wednesday, 97 are connected to known and contained outbreaks while 387 remain under investigation.
There are 3,408 active cases, with 205 people in hospital and 40 of those in intensive care.
Additional reporting: AAP
People in Australia must stay at least 1.5 metres away from others. Check your state’s restrictions on gathering limits.
If you are experiencing cold or flu symptoms, stay home and arrange a test by calling your doctor or contact the Coronavirus Health Information Hotline on 1800 020 080.
