Lower markets, higher mortgages predicted if Trump wins

A Donald Trump victory may see global sharemarkets immediately fall by as much as 10 per cent and mortgage rates rise, with Australian economic implications far greater than the Brexit vote.

Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump

Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump gestures as he speaks during a campaign rally Thursday, Nov. 3, 2016, in Selma, N.C. Source: AAP

China's economic strength is casting a shadow over the dominance once held by the US.

It overtook the US as the world's biggest exporter in 2014, accounting for 14 per cent of global exports as compared with the US at 10 per cent.

AMP Capital Chief Economist Shane Oliver says the Republican nominee is chasing the populist vote.

"Donald Trump is representing the anti-globalisation forces, the populous forces trying to push globalisation back the other way."

The way the next US leader manages its relationship with China will be critical for Australia.

Trump proposes protectionist policies, including a 45 per cent tariff on Chinese goods and China could retaliate by imposing a similar tariff on American products.

Whereas Hillary Clinton largely supports free trade as long as America isn't harmed.

Stephen Koukoulas, economist at Market Economics, says both leaders have turned their backs on the Trans-Pacific Partnership agreement.

"The implication would be, though, how does the government here respond if there is this withdrawal of the US from the Asia-Pacific region both economically and politically, and what that might mean for our relationship with China," he said.

"Obviously we've just signed a Free Trade Agreement with China and a third of our trade goes to China at the moment.

"And to the extent that there is any threat to that then of course the fall-out for us could be more severe with a Trump win."
Shane Oliver says it's a delicate balancing act because China is Australia's biggest export market, but the US is Australia's biggest foreign investor.

"We'll get caught-up in the crossfire, so to speak. That's why you've seen global sharemarkets come down - worries about a global trade war."

He adds that the unpredictability following a Trump win would trigger what's known as a 'risk-off event', sending the US dollar higher and the Australian dollar lower as investors seek safe haven assets.

"We've already come off on the Australian sharemarket about 4 per cent over the last couple of weeks, we might come down another 4 or 5 per cent."

Over the past few months, American shares were sold off when developments favoured Donald Trump - such as Hillary Clinton's pneumonia bout and after last week's FBI investigation.

But the market rose when developments favoured Clinton, like Trump's infamous 2005 tape leak and the televised debates.
Dow Jones Index
Source: SBS World News
Stephen Koukoulas says a win for Clinton would support the status quo and could support a relief rally on the sharemarket.

"It's business as usual. Her policies, her party, her ideas are well known, they're well established. And in a sense being the comfort factor, we know broadly the US economy would be run prudently."

Shane Oliver says like Brexit there's likely to be a knee-jerk reaction following the US election result but the implications could be longer lasting.

"Brexit was about the UK, the UK is only 2 and a half per cent of the world economy. This is about the US, it is about the world's biggest economy."

Trump wants to dramatically reduce the US corporate tax rate from 35 per cent to 15 per cent, below Australia's 30 per cent rate.

It's also likely to be reviewed if the Democrats win.
It was Bill Clinton in 1993 who lifted the US corporate tax rate to 35 per cent, one of the highest in the world.

Even he says it now looks out of line with current global rates, which means taxes would likely be reviewed if the Democrats win.

Shane Oliver says that could be bad news for the Australian economy.

"So if America suddenly cuts their corporate tax rate to be well below the comparable country average, then locating in America will be far more competitive.

"And the danger is that Australian companies will say we're not going to incorporate in Australia, we're going to switch to the US, incorporate there and that will mean a loss of jobs from Australia to the US."

While a lower Australian dollar following a possible Trump win would ease any pressure the Reserve Bank would have by not having to cut official interest rates, mortgage rates may still rise according to Shane Oliver.

"If we go into an environment where Donald Trump wins, that creates uncertainty globally - less money flowing around," he said.

"That could actually boost the cost of funding for banks and they would be under potential pressure to raise their mortgage rates and their lending rates generally, and then the Reserve Bank would think - are we happy with that?

"If not, and I don't think they would be, then they would have to cut the cash rate to offset it."

 


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5 min read
Published 4 November 2016 7:22pm
Updated 4 November 2016 7:50pm
By Ricardo Goncalves


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