Australia – and the world - is at risk of a deadly pandemic taking hold. But it’s not Ebola.
, Victoria's Chief Health Officer, told Insight it would be unlikely that the deadly Ebola virus would spread, even if it reached Australia.
"To catch , you have to have direct contact with the body fluids of a person. So, good infection-control measures should be enough to control Ebola, and, in Australia, we have very good systems which would prevent that happening," she says.
Dr Lester believes the real threat is influenza, and a new strain could have a devastating impact.
"The influenza virus is almost unique in that it can change its genetic structure quite suddenly. And because influenza spreads quite rapid between people ... that's why influenza develops into pandemics," Dr Lester explains.
If infected, people will need to quarantine themselves from society, a move Victoria's Emergency Management Commissioner says would be challenging.
"How do they get those lifelines? How do they get their food? How are they supported?," Lapsley asks.
Food industry consultant Steve Newton has been involved in pandemic planning with major supermarkets. He says if a person is isolated for a long time, this could be a problem.
"Ninety-five percent of houseolds now only have two to four days of food," Newton says.
Fortunately, supermarkets have developed arrangments to cope in an emergency.
"There will be only certain supermarkets that will be open, and they will have a health-and-hygiene station out the front. As they [customers] come through, they'll then have to go through what we call a one-metre trolley rule. They grab a trolley, and they must keep that trolley between them and the next person. And then it's one way through the store."
, infectious-disease physician with Melbourne's Alfred Hospital, believes hospitals will be the hardest hit.
"There's a very finite number of intensive-care beds, and there's some ability for that to increase where there's a crisis. One of our local responses would be to try and scale back on elective surgery, so surgery that could be put off safely in patients to give us a bit more capacity," Dr Cheng says.
Meanwhile as the World Health Organisation (WHO) continue to monitor new viruses, WHO Professor concedes there will be limitations to what they can forecast.
"The reality is, with pandemic flu, you never know where it's going to come from."
"We were completely blindsided in 2009 when the virus emerged in North America from pigs. So, in a sense, we can't predict. We have to have the systems where we're keeping an eye on what's circulating and hope to pick it up quickly."
Insight will air the program at 8.30pm ON SBS ONE. Tonight’s episode explores just how Australia would cope in a hypothetical influenza pandemic situation.
