Hindsight not so necessary at the election

Politicians losing on election night are brutally honest in their hindsight, but maybe hindsight isn't so necessary to pick where the federal poll is heading.

A composite image of Bill Shorten and Scott Morrison.

No matter which party leader loses on federal election night, they'll have their excuses ready. (AAP)

The most honest you will ever see a politician is when they're on TV on election night and their side is taking a beating.

They instantly use their 20/20 hindsight to accurately diagnose everything their party did wrong to cause the defeat.

"The signs were there," they say.

The honesty usually lasts just one night, before everyone regroups and begins the internal bloodletting.

So what will Australia's honest federal MPs be saying on our screens on a Saturday night in May?

If the coalition wins it will be Labor figures sweating under the bright lights and brutally rolling through their reasons.

"The budget is back in surplus, and Australians are rewarding the coalition for its budget management."

"Bill Shorten was never popular with voters, he rubbed people the wrong way, he had too much factional and union baggage."

"The coalition's last-ditch attempt to stoke fears over boat people has worked yet again, and Labor's decision to risk changes to border protection backfired."

But if the polls are correct and Labor wins, the coalition has a long list of reasons to explain the loss.

In fact, it's so long and wide-ranging, it's difficult to see how Scott Morrison's government avoids defeat.

The government has already lost its majority and is in a losing position going into the election. This is similar to the spot Kevin Rudd found himself in upon his return in 2013 when he copped a belting at the ballot box.

The polls regularly have Labor with 53 per cent of the two-party preferred vote; if this is repeated at the election it will be the party's biggest win since Bob Hawke in 1983.

Voters who were mad about Labor's instability in 2013 are also cranky about the coalition repeating that instability.

Dumping a well-liked prime minister in Malcolm Turnbull for a less liked leader in Morrison caused an immediate dip in the polls, and they have not recovered.

The party's constant flip-flopping on climate and energy came at the worst possible time, as the country sweltered through a record-breaking summer and extreme weather got worse.

Six years of offshore detention of asylum seekers has taken its toll on the Australian people, who are more aware of why refugees are fleeing violent homes than they were before.

The budget improvement has come at the expense of vulnerable people who have dealt with a Medicare rebate freeze, the robodebt fiasco, and extreme times on hold with Centrelink.

And electricity prices and health insurance premiums have shot up while wages have remained relatively flat, leaving households fighting to stay above water.

The coalition has run through all of its policy ideas since 2013, and there is nothing new left in the tank, just the "steady as she goes" message.

There are other reasons too. A number of senior coalition people are retiring and their seats will have to be won by new, unknown candidates. Other high profile MPs will have their focus kept at home battling an independents insurgence instead of helping out in marginal seats.

Julie Bishop has already given her verdict - she says the coalition would have won the election if she had been made prime minister instead of Morrison.

The coalition hasn't even lost yet, but Bishop is using some of that election night hindsight in advance.

"I was confident that I could (beat Shorten). And that was Labor's thought too," she told the Sunday Times.

That sort of honesty is refreshing for the general public but there is a reason it usually only comes out on election night.

Politicians who are still sitting in parliament and fighting for every vote, every fundraised dollar, do not appreciate their ex-colleagues speaking their mind and hurting the party brand.

The Liberals and Nationals still fighting to win the May election remain positive.

"I'm sure Julie could have beaten Bill Shorten, but I'm also confident that Scott Morrison will beat Bill Shorten," cabinet minister Simon Birmingham said.

Maybe.

But that list of problems the coalition has to overcome makes it appear unlikely it will be Labor politicians unleashing on their colleagues on election night.

The signs are there for the coalition, if they're honest about it.


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4 min read
Published 7 March 2019 3:26pm
Source: AAP


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