Below-average growth tipped to continue

The nation's economy will continue growing more slowly than its historical average for the remainder of the year, a leading economic forecaster believes.

Housing market

The downward trend in housing means things are looking less rosy in that sector. (AAP)

Australia's economic growth is expected to remain below average for the remainder of this year and into 2020 amid falling house prices and a slowing global economy.

Leading forecaster Deloitte Access Economics has made the prediction in its latest Business Outlook.

The weaker growth will mean slower jobs gains and could hold up a long-awaited improvement in wage increases, Deloitte believes.

Inflation, which is currently running at a little under two per cent, is also expected to ease further.

The forecasts come as both Prime Minister Scott Morrison and his Labor rival Bill Shorten have made management of the economy a key issue for May's federal election.

Deloitte says Australians are becoming more conservative as house prices are declining and that fewer homes are being built.

But the firm's partner Chris Richardson says people shouldn't be too alarmed about the trends, largely because the price falls are biggest in the nation's strongest economies of Sydney and Melbourne.

Prices had risen so steeply that most people didn't start to rely too deeply on their new found health either, he believes.

"This a slowdown, rather than something deeper and nastier," he said in the outlook published on Monday.

Globally, he believes the slowdowns in most economies - fuelled by trade tensions and businesses and consumers saving more of their cash - should be considered modest.

It also follows two years of excellent growth, with some governments spending more and keeping things moving, helping to limit the risk of things taking more of a downturn.

Looking across Australia, Deloitte says while the federal government is projecting budget surpluses, state governments are watching their revenues melt away.

The cash they are raking in through stamp duty and GST is dropping amid the slowing housing market.

When it comes to specific industries, the forecasters says Australia is showing some signs of becoming a "two-speed economy" once more, after most having been riding a wave of strong conditions.

Health care, professional services, the public service, infrastructure and mining are looking strong.

The trend in housing means things are looking less rosy in that sector and in property services and the finance industry, while retailers are also grappling with weaker demand for housing goods.


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3 min read
Published 15 April 2019 12:08am
Source: AAP


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